You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to realise why Sabah and Sarawak are being so fervently courted by both Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat ahead of GE13. BN’s fabled ‘fixed deposit’ states meant it swept all 25 Sabah federal seats in GE12, along with all but two in 31-seat Sarawak.
This means that both Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Datuk Seri Najib Razak will find it hard to keep away from Borneo as GE13 nears. With 56 of the nation’s 222 Dewan Rakyat seats up for grabs, Anwar sees a potential windfall if he can record any sort of swing. This is also why he has courted defectors in Sabah. His alliance with SAPP along with Datuk Seri Lajim Ukin’s APS and Datuk Seri Wilfred Bumburing’s PPPS could automatically net him six seats, providing voters don’t punish the latter two for switching sides. Not everyone is as supportive of party-hoppers as Anwar is.
In line with this optimism, Pakatan has begun leaking stories to the media about how it will win a whopping 145 seats at GE13 – which would be quite an achievement for a shaky coalition that won 82 last time around and has lurched from crisis to crisis since.
Will PAS members be driven to Umno because they prefer that to being in bed with DAP, who claim rights to the word “Allah” for their Bible? You bet. There are already genuine grass roots calls for PAS to leave Pakatan itself.
And conversely, could DAP supporters be driven back to BN out of fear of what PAS could do in power, when it unfurls its Islamic agenda? That’s a tougher call, but no one should underestimate the fear the Chinese feel in places like Kedah and Kelantan.
But back to Borneo, where it isn’t just Pakatan Rakyat that is exuding confidence. Both Sabah and Sarawak have a lot of settlers and for that matter, a lot of low-income families. These are precisely the people who benefited from the three windfall payments last year totalling RM15,000 to settlers and the latest BR1M people’s aid in the past month.
As Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said recently: “There are quite a large number of recipients, whose lives have been changed by the BR1M funds.”
“Based on the data and information we have received, I am confident that Sabah will remain a blue BN state,” he said.
So much for PAS Spiritual Leader Nik Aziz Nik Mat’s dismissal of BR1M aid as “cows and chickens”. His comment insulted the most needy.
Najib is equally upbeat about the overall seat picture and made the point in Sarawak recently. He said he believes the rakyat would accept BN’s candidates who have been selected in a nine-month process and have all been cleared by the MACC – a Najib initiative.
“I notice that the people’s responses have been very encouraging because they are convinced that the transformation policies advocated by the BN will benefit the people and guarantee a better future,” the Prime Minister said.
There is another factor here that has been overlooked in all the Sabah and Sarawak hype. Could the reason for Anwar’s near-obsession with Borneo be because his pollsters have told him that Malay and Indian voters in peninsula Malaysia have deserted the Opposition in droves? That would explain the latest spat in Johor, where PKR and DAP are scrapping over the few winnable Chinese seats.
Notice too that PKR’s leaked seat forecast was 145 – close to, but beneath the magical 148 number for a two-thirds majority. No one wants to be seen predicting that big a win. A comfortable margin will suit BN at GE13. Just falling over the line will suit desperate and weary Anwar and his fractious coalition.